The public warns it will be far less likely to back the Conservatives again if they compromise over reclaiming UK sovereignty in key areas
Red Wall voters have delivered a stark warning to Boris Johnson – betray us at your peril over Brexit.
By an overwhelming margin, people living in the seats that dramatically switched from Labour to the Conservatives and gave the Prime Minister an 80-strong majority at the election a year ago say they will shy away from the Tories unless he delivers a deal with the EU that safeguards UK sovereignty.
On the supremacy of the British Parliament and courts, control of UK fishing waters, power over UK trade tariffs, the threat of future UK cash payments to Brussels, and the right to strike trade deals across the world, voters living in these key battleground areas in the North and the Midlands are adamant that there must be no backsliding in the final round of UK-EU talks now at the eleventh hour.
For instance, asked if they would be more likely or less likely to vote Conservative at the next election if the talks ended with the UK being unable to do its own trade deals, 38 per cent were much less likely to do so and 17 per cent somewhat less likely. This compared with only 10 per cent saying they were much more likely or somewhat more likely to vote Conservative in such a situation – a negative rating of a whopping 45 per cent. Similar large negatives were recorded on the other key issues being thrashed out by UK chief negotiator Lord Frost and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier.
The figures, based on a Savanta ComRes sample of over 2,000 people living in 34 Red Wall seats in the Midlands and North, will send a chill down the spine of new Conservative MPs, often elected by narrow majorities in territory now critical to Mr Johnson retaining power when the country next goes to the polls.
They demonstrate conclusively that a soft deal of the kind favoured by opponents of Brexit will fail to placate the Red Wall public. Their responses indicate strongly that if Mr Johnson reneges on his 2016 referendum promise to “take back control’ and his 2019 manifesto pledge to “get Brexit done”, they will take their revenge at the ballot box.
The poll was commissioned by the cross-party Centre for Brexit Policy based on questions in its recent Brexit ’Scorecard’. CBP analysis of the findings suggests that all 34 of the Red Wall Conservative MPs would be at severe risk of losing their seats at the next election, with an average of about 40 per cent of all voters in such seats saying they would be inclined to turn their backs on the Tories if the Prime Minister settles for a Brexit that leaves the UK unable to exercise its sovereignty over a range of policy areas.
The figures are even more alarming for the Conservatives when the focus is solely on ‘switchers’ – Labour voters who switched to the Tories in 2019. They are even more inclined than long-standing Conservative voters in Red Wall seats to warn that they will change sides again if the imminent deal results in the EU retaining its grip over the UK. On average, 55 per cent of these specific voters in Red Wall seats would be less likely to vote Conservative if the Prime Minister settles for a Brexit that leaves the UK unable to exercise its sovereignty over a range of policy areas.
The survey also found that the Red Wall is relaxed about a No Deal outcome to the talks. Over two in five, 41 per cent, said such a result would make no difference to their vote. Twenty per cent said No Deal would make them more likely to back the Conservatives, while 32 per cent said less likely.
However, among ‘switchers’ the position was reversed, suggesting this pivotal group of voters, are determined to see a full Brexit. By a margin of plus 10 points, they would be more likely to vote Conservative if the UK exited on a No Deal basis.
The big differences came when 2019 Conservative manifesto promises were put to the public.
For instance, if the UK remains liable for making payments to the EU after Brexit is finalised at the end of the year, the propensity to vote Conservative at a future election is minus 44 per cent. It is also minus 44 per cent if the UK leaves without being able to set its own tariffs.
Failure to take back control of fishing waters is minus 42 per cent; an inability for the UK to pass its own laws with its courts enforcing them is minus 36 per cent; and a failure for the country as a whole to exit the Brexit Transition Period is minus 24 per cent. Continuing jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice over the UK produces a negative rating of minus 23 per cent.
Among ‘switchers’ the numbers are even grimmer for any outcome approaching a soft Brexit. Remaining in the single market produces a score of minus 15 per cent; the customs union minus 24 per cent; not exiting the transition period as one whole UK minus 38 per cent; remaining under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice minus 40 per cent.
The negative verdict rises to a staggering minus 63 per cent if Britain quits the EU unable to do its own trade deals.
Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a fellow of the CBP, said that it underlined the gravity of the talks between the two sides and the importance of Britain standing firm by the promises made in the past.
“This survey shows that the people of the Red Wall will not forgive my party if we cave into Brussels’s pressure and give ground on matters of vital national interest, such as the supremacy of UK law, maintaining the integrity of the whole of the UK, and the future of our fishing industry.
“The idea that we can cobble together some sort of half-baked, half-sovereign deal and expect to get away with it is a dangerous illusion.”
John Longworth, Director-General of the CBP, said: “This poll shows that for all the understandable focus on the coronavirus crisis, Brexit has not gone away. The people who gave Boris the keys to No 10 are perfectly capable of taking them back again if he tries to wriggle out of his promises. To coin a phrase, the voters of the Red Wall are ready to ‘take back control’.
Notes to Editors:
Full details of the polling are below:
Savanta ComRes interviewed 2,093 UK adults aged 18+ online between 25 and 30 November 2020. Those adults were from the following 34 UK parliamentary constituencies, commonly referred to as the Red Wall:
Ashfield, Barrow and Furness, Bassetlaw, Birmingham Northfield, Bishop Auckland, Blackpool South, Blyth Valley, Bolsover, Bolton North East, Burnley, Bury South, Colne Valley, Darlington, Don Valley, Dudley North, Gedling, Great Grimsby, Heywood and Middleton, Hyndburn, Leigh, Newcastle-under-Lyme, North West Durham, Penistone and Stocksbridge, Redcar, Rother Valley, Scunthorpe, Sedgefield, Stoke-on-Trent Central, Stoke-on-Trent North, Wakefield, West Bromwich East, West Bromwich West, Wolverhampton North East, Workington.
Full polling results for all people living in Red Wall seats:
Q1. If the UK-EU Brexit negotiations end without a deal, the UK will trade with the EU in future on WTO rules. This would mean introducing tariffs (taxes on imports and exports), and trading in a similar way that the UK does with other countries such as the United States. If this ‘no deal’ scenario occurs, to what extent would you be more or less likely to vote Conservative at the next General Election?
| Much more likely to vote Conservative | 12% |
| Somewhat more likely to vote Conservative | 8% |
| Makes no difference | 41% |
| Somewhat less likely to vote Conservative | 7% |
| Much less likely to vote Conservative | 25% |
| Don’t know | 7% |
| SUM: More likely | 20% |
| SUM: Less likely | 32% |
| NET: More likely | -12% |
Q2/3. To what extent would you be more or less likely to vote Conservative at the next General Election, if the Brexit deal agreed with the EU means …?
| Much more likely to vote Conservative | Somewhat more likely to vote Conservative | Makes no difference | Somewhat less likely to vote Conservative | Much less likely to vote Conservative | Don’t know | SUM: More likely | SUM: Less likely | NET: More likely | |
| The UK maintains political alignment with the EU after the Brexit Transition Period, such as a common foreign and security policy | 8% | 16% | 44% | 10% | 14% | 7% | 25% | 24% | – |
| The UK remains in the EU single market | 10% | 17% | 38% | 11% | 18% | 7% | 27% | 28% | -1% |
| The UK remains in the EU customs union | 9% | 15% | 39% | 11% | 19% | 7% | 24% | 30% | -6% |
| The UK establishes a new relationship with the EU that is based on EU law | 7% | 13% | 37% | 14% | 22% | 7% | 20% | 36% | -16% |
| The UK remains under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice | 6% | 11% | 37% | 13% | 27% | 6% | 17% | 40% | -23% |
| The whole country does not exit the Brexit Transition Period as one United Kingdom | 6% | 8% | 41% | 13% | 25% | 8% | 14% | 38% | -24% |
| The UK cannot pass its own laws and ensure its courts enforce them | 5% | 7% | 32% | 15% | 33% | 7% | 13% | 49% | -36% |
| The UK is not in full control of its fishing waters | 4% | 6% | 32% | 18% | 34% | 7% | 10% | 52% | -42% |
| The UK cannot set its own tariffs | 4% | 6% | 30% | 19% | 35% | 7% | 10% | 54% | -44% |
| The UK remains liable to making payments to the EU | 4% | 6% | 31% | 15% | 38% | 7% | 9% | 53% | -44% |
| The UK cannot do its own trade deals | 4% | 6% | 29% | 17% | 38% | 6% | 10% | 55% | -45% |
Full polling results among ‘switchers’ – people who voted Labour in the past then switched to the Conservatives in 2019 after their promise to “Get Brexit Done”.
Q1. If the UK-EU Brexit negotiations end without a deal, the UK will trade with the EU in future on WTO rules. This would mean introducing tariffs (taxes on imports and exports), and trading in a similar way that the UK does with other countries such as the United States. If this ‘no deal’ scenario occurs, to what extent would you be more or less likely to vote Conservative at the next General Election?
| Much more likely to vote Conservative | 13% |
| Somewhat more likely to vote Conservative | 15% |
| Makes no difference | 49% |
| Somewhat less likely to vote Conservative | 8% |
| Much less likely to vote Conservative | 10% |
| Don’t know | 4% |
| SUM: More likely | 28% |
| SUM: Less likely | 18% |
| NET: More likely | 10% |
Q2/3. To what extent would you be more or less likely to vote Conservative at the next General Election, if the Brexit deal agreed with the EU means …?
| Much more likely to vote Conservative | Somewhat more likely to vote Conservative | Makes no difference | Somewhat less likely to vote Conservative | Much less likely to vote Conservative | Don’t know | SUM: More likely | SUM: Less likely | NET: More likely | |
| The UK maintains political alignment with the EU after the Brexit Transition Period, such as a common foreign and security policy | 9% | 18% | 42% | 13% | 15% | 3% | 27% | 28% | -1% |
| The UK remains in the EU single market | 12% | 14% | 27% | 22% | 19% | 6% | 26% | 41% | -15% |
| The UK remains in the EU customs union | 6% | 15% | 26% | 25% | 21% | 7% | 22% | 46% | -24% |
| The UK establishes a new relationship with the EU that is based on EU law | 5% | 17% | 22% | 32% | 22% | 2% | 22% | 54% | -32% |
| The whole country does not exit the Brexit Transition Period as one United Kingdom | 3% | 10% | 29% | 26% | 24% | 7% | 13% | 51% | -38% |
| The UK remains under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice | 9% | 9% | 17% | 19% | 39% | 6% | 18% | 58% | -40% |
| The UK cannot pass its own laws and ensure its courts enforce them | 5% | 13% | 17% | 16% | 45% | 4% | 18% | 61% | -43% |
| The UK cannot set its own tariffs | 5% | 10% | 20% | 16% | 47% | 2% | 15% | 63% | -48% |
| The UK is not in full control of its fishing waters | 3% | 13% | 16% | 22% | 44% | 2% | 16% | 66% | -50% |
| The UK remains liable to making payments to the EU | 3% | 10% | 12% | 15% | 59% | 2% | 13% | 74% | -61% |
| The UK cannot do its own trade deals | 2% | 8% | 16% | 18% | 54% | 2% | 10% | 73% | -63% |
ENDS