The Telegraph, November 12, Roger Bootle
Good news ahead? In many weeks there is a flurry of economic statistics, signifying nothing. You wonder at the end of it what the message of this barrage of numbers really is.
This week promises to be different, with the publication of a potentially very important figure. Nevertheless, we must beware of economic statisticians bearing gifts. To get the right message will require some careful interpretation.
Pride of place among this week’s figures must go to the inflation numbers for October, which are due out on Wednesday. Believe it or not, I am fairly confident that we will see a drop in the CPI inflation rate from 6.7pc last month to something much lower, perhaps to about 4.7pc.
You may be surprised at both the size of the prospective drop and my comparative confidence. The explanation is that this drop will be heavily influenced by two things that we already know.
Click here to read the piece in full.