The Daily Telegraph, 17 December, Roger Bootle
It is a bit early to be assessing the year that has not yet ended, still, in a week’s time it will be Christmas Eve. In any case, I am sure that you wouldn’t want a missive from one of the dismal scientists to be interfering with your Christmas cheer. So here goes.
Cast your mind’s eye back to the beginning of the year and recall how things seemed. The mood was very bleak. Inflation had just reached 11.1pc in October. Interest rates were rising and most people regarded recession as inevitable. The geopolitical scene looked extremely threatening.
At the beginning of January, I suggested that 2023 would be a year of two halves, with gloom prevailing in the first half and much more optimism in the second. To some extent, this proved correct – with some qualifications.
I thought that much of the world would be in recession during this year, with the UK economy contracting by 2pc. In the event, the economy turned out to be more resilient. The UK may only now be just about entering a very mild recession. Even so, the outturn for the year is likely to be growth of something like 0.5pc.
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