The Telegraph, 17 September, Roger Bootle
Returning after my summer break, I find many aspects of the economic scene wearyingly familiar. But there are a few others that look somewhat different from when I left and they give reason for hope.
The inflation picture still looks concerning. Admittedly, the headline rate of inflation has fallen from a peak of 11.1pc to 6.8pc. And there should be further drops later this year.
But all along, the medium-term danger has been that high headline inflation would get embedded in pay awards and this would be the basis for higher inflation further down the track, long after one of the key drivers behind the inflation spike – the sharp rise in energy and other imported costs – had subsided.
The latest figures saw the three monthly year-on-year rate of pay inflation edge up from 8.4pc to 8.5pc, well above the rate of price inflation.
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