The Daily Telegraph, 31 December, Roger Bootle
It is that time of year again when we begin to make predictions for the year ahead. Perhaps the most difficult thing for forecasters trying to peer into the future is having to put numbers and probabilities on things that are inherently uncertain.
In most years, it seems that uncertainty is greater than normal. In practice, I suspect that things are always extremely uncertain.
Nevertheless, I am starting this year’s missive by saying that in 2024 things are unusually uncertain.
On the geopolitical scene, there are clearly key risks associated with the Russia-Ukraine war, conflict in the Middle East and continued rumblings over Taiwan, where the coming election could intensify tensions.
On the economic front, China remains a big worry and there is the risk of a renewed downturn there, mainly associated with weakness in the construction sector.
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