Briefings for Britain, 22 February, Catherine McBride
A recent research paper by Goldman Sachs claims that the UK’s economy had significantly underperformed ‘other advanced economies’ because Brexit had reduced trade, lowered business investment and lowered EU immigration. The paper is unconvincing with evidence flimsy at best and some of their trade statistics are incorrect. If anything, the paper simply proves that the US would be a better economic model for the UK, not the EU.
Last week Goldman Sachs (GS) produced a paper on the structural and cyclical costs of Brexit which they distributed widely to the media. In their executive summary, they report that their analysis suggests that real UK GDP has fallen short of similar countries by about 5%. This was gleefully reported by media ranging from The Times in the UK to America’s CNBC. However, having been asked by a client of GS to review their analysis, I cannot conclude that the paper proves this at all. Even GS admit that not all of the UK’s economic problems can be attributed to Brexit, although most of the media have chosen to report their conclusions as both correct and solely due to the UK leaving the EU.
Click here to read the report in full.