The Telegraph, 2 January, Roger Bootle
We have again reached that point when supposed seers like me are expected to divine the shape of things to come. This is always a big ask, but I am finding it even more difficult than usual at the dawn of 2022.
Of course, we have no idea what unknown unknowns are lurking in the months ahead. That is always the case. But this year there are a good few significant known unknowns to unsettle us.
Clearly, what happens to the economy is going to be heavily influenced by Covid factors – the progress of the virus, the success or otherwise of vaccines and the severity of government restrictions.
Accepting the high level of uncertainty surrounding these factors, there is a reasonable case for expecting this year to follow a similar path to 2021, with restrictions and perhaps formal lockdowns depressing activity in the first few months, followed by a strong recovery later.
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